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In this paper, an efficient multi-objective model is proposed to solve time-cost trade off problem considering cash flows. The proposed multi-objective meta-heuristic is based on Ant colony optimization and is called Non Dominated Archiving Ant Colony Optimization (NAACO). The significant feature of this work is consideration of uncertainties in time, cost and more importantly interest rate. A fuzzy approach is adopted to account for uncertainties. Mathematics of cash-flow analysis in a fuzzy environment is described. A case study is done using the proposed approach

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This paper, we presents a new primary-secondary-criteria scheduling model for resource-constrained project scheduling problem (RCPSP) with uncertain activity durations (UD) and cash flows (UC). The RCPSP-UD-UC approach producing a “robust” resource-feasible schedule immunized against uncertainties in the activity durations and which is on the sampling-based scenarios may be evaluated from a cost-oriented point of view. In the presented approach, it is assumed that each activity-duration and each cash flow value is an uncertain-but-bounded parameter, which is characterized by its optimistic and pessimistic estimations. The evaluation of a given robust schedule is based on the investigation of variability of the makespan as a primary and the net present value (NPV) as secondary criterion on the set of randomly generated scenarios given by a sampling-on-sampling-like process. Theoretically, the robust schedule-searching algorithm is formulated as a mixed integer linear programming problem, which is combined with a cost-oriented sampling-based approximation phase. In order to illustrate the essence of the proposed approach we present detailed computational results for a larger and very challenging project instance. A problem specific fast and efficient harmony search algorithm for large uncertain problems will be presented in a forthcoming paper.

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In this paper, we present a new idea for robust project scheduling combined with a cost-oriented uncertainty investigation. The result of the new approach is a makespan minimal robust proactive schedule, which is immune against the uncertainties in the activity durations and which can be evaluated from a cost-oriented point of view on the set of the uncertain-but-bounded duration and cost parameters using a sampling-based approximation. In this paper, we assume that the sources of uncertainty are the variability of the activity durations and the cash flow values, and present an appropriate hybrid method, which is a combination of mathematical programming, metaheuristic and sampling-based elements, to cope with this "uncertainty in uncertainty" like real problem.

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This paper introduces a methodology for considering the uncertainties in stability analysis of gravity dams. For this purpose, a conceptual model based on the fuzzy set theory and Genetic Algorithm (GA) optimization is developed to be coupled to a gravity dam analysis model. The uncertainties are represented by the fuzzy numbers and the GA is used to estimate in what extent the input uncertainties affect the dam safety factors. An example gravity dam is analyzed using the proposed approach. The results show that the crisp safety factors might be highly affected by the input uncertainties. For instance, ±10%uncertainty in the design parameters could result in about −346 to + 146 % uncertainty in the stability safety factors and −59 to + 134 % in the stress safety factor of the example dam.

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The increase in the number of construction projects and the involvement of a large amount of resources show that one of the most important actions of any construction project is to select the right contractor for the project. Delays in most construction projects and increased costs compared to initial estimates are often due to inadequacies by contractors, indicating that the contractor has not been properly selected. The complexities of the construction industry and the existing uncertainties have led experts to point out that choosing a contractor is a sensitive and difficult task. The purpose of this paper is to design a fuzzy inference system (FIS) to select the best contractor in conditions of uncertainty. The fuzzy inference system is a powerful tool for handling the uncertainties and subjectivities arising in the evaluation process of contractors. The proposed FIS has a two-step computational process in which 28 criteria are determined to evaluate the contractors. The proposed FIS is applied to evaluate and select the best contractor among 5 contractors considered by the general department of roads and urban development in Shahrekord. The studied criteria for evaluating contractors are categorized in six groups, including good history and credibility, equipment, management and specialized staff, economic-financial, skills-ability, and technical criteria. The results show that technical criteria are determined as the most important criteria for evaluating contractors. Furthermore, the results of applying the proposed FIS reveal that contractor C is the best contractor with the final score of 31.40.

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Reliable and accurate streamflow forecasting plays a crucial role in water resources systems (WRS) especially in dams operation and watershed management. However, due to the high uncertainty associated WRS components and nonlinear nature of streamflow generations, the realistic streamflow forecasts is still one of the most challenging issue in WRS. This paper aimed to forecast one-month ahead streamflow of Karun river (Iran) by coupling an artificial neural network (ANN) with an improved binary version of gravitational search algorithm (IBGSA), named ANN- IBGSA. To this end, the best lag number for each predictor at Poleshaloo station was firstly selected by auto-correlation function (ACF). The ANN-IBGSA was used to minimize the sum of RMSE and R2 and to identify the optimal predictors. Finally, to characterize the hydro-climatic uncertainties associated with the selected predictors, an
implicit approach of Monte-Carlo simulation (MCS) was applied. The ACF plots indicated a significant correlation up to a lag of two months for the input predictors. The ANN-IBGSA identified the Tmean (t-1), Q(t-1) and Q(t) as the best predictors. Findings demonstrated that the ANN-IBGSA forecasts were considerably better than those previously carried out by researchers in 2013. The average improvement values were 9.91%, 11.85% and 9.13% for RMSE, R2 and MAE, respectively. The Monte-Carlo simulations demonstrated that all of forecasted values lie within the 95% confidence intervals.
 

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In this study, the support vector machine and Monte Carlo simulation are applied to predict natural frequencies of truss structures with uncertainties. Material and geometrical properties (e.g., elasticity modulus and cross-section area) of the structure are assumed to be random variables. Thus, the effects of multiple random variables on natural frequencies are investigated. Monte Carlo simulation is used for probabilistic eigenvalue analysis of the structure. In order to reduce the computational cost of Monte Carlo simulation, a support vector machine model is trained to predict the required natural frequencies of the structure computed in the simulations. The provided examples demonstrate the computational efficiency and accuracy of the proposed method compared to the direct Monte Carlo simulation in the computation of the natural frequencies for trusses with random parameters.